JUMLAH ANGKA KELAHIRAN BAYI DI KECAMATAN ILIR BARAT II PALEMBANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES MODEL CHEN DAN HSU

SAPUTRA, MUHAMMAD MUQSITH GIGA and Utami, Alvi Syahrini and Miraswan, Kanda Januar (2023) JUMLAH ANGKA KELAHIRAN BAYI DI KECAMATAN ILIR BARAT II PALEMBANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES MODEL CHEN DAN HSU. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

The birth rate is a very important indicator in carrying out population control planning. High birth rates need attention, especially in handling. Therefore, a way is needed to predict the number of baby births in the future, in order to assist the government in making decisions to suppress population growth. One method that can be used is Chen and Hsu Fuzzy Time Series. Chen and Hsu Fuzzy Time Series method is a prediction method that has the ability to solve historical data forecasting problems in the form of linguistic values and is able to recognize patterns from time series data. The prediction results will be very good if the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value is below 10%. Based on the trial used consisting of 108 data for the period from January 2014 to December 2022, the test results of the MAPE value were 1.72%. The results showed that Chen and Hsu Fuzzy Time Series method was suitable for predicting the number of baby births in Ilir Barat II Palembang District with a very good accuracy value.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Birth Rate, Chen and Hsu Fuzzy Time Series, MAPE
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA1-939 Mathematics > QA9.64.A56 Computer science. Fuzzy mathematics.
Divisions:	09-Faculty of Computer Science > 55201-Informatics (S1)
Depositing User:	Muhammad Muqsith Giga Saputra
Date Deposited:	26 Jun 2023 02:21
Last Modified:	26 Jun 2023 02:21
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/113223

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