IMPLEMENTASI METODE TIME-INVARIANT FUZZY TIME SERIES UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI HARGA BERAS DI KOTA PALEMBANG

HASIBUAN, NURMA YUNITA DEBORA and Utami, Alvi Syahrini and Miraswan, Kanda Januar (2023) IMPLEMENTASI METODE TIME-INVARIANT FUZZY TIME SERIES UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI HARGA BERAS DI KOTA PALEMBANG. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Rice prices are food commodity prices that are always monitored and government intervention, because rice prices are able to influence food security, poverty, and economic growth. Rice prices are often volatile. Rice price prediction is very important to be used as information in making decisions and planning appropriate activities. This study discusses the implementation of Time-Invariant Fuzzy Time Series method in predicting rice prices in Palembang. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of accuracy of the Time-Invariant Fuzzy Time Series method. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used to measure the performance of the method as the level of accuracy of predictions made. Historical test data was used as many as 249 data from the period December 15, 2021 to December 15, 2022 with parameter values D1 and D2. The use of parameter values will affect the predicted result value. From the results of the analysis conducted with 30 input experiments on the parameters obtained the best accuracy results with D1=3380 and D2=3250, with MAPE 1.033%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	rice price, prediction, Time-Invariant Fuzzy Time Series, Mean Absolute Percentage Error.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA1-939 Mathematics > QA9.64.A56 Computer science. Fuzzy mathematics.
Divisions:	09-Faculty of Computer Science > 55201-Informatics (S1)
Depositing User:	Nurma Yunita Debora Hasibuan
Date Deposited:	11 Jul 2023 05:00
Last Modified:	11 Jul 2023 05:00
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/115524

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