IMPLEMENTASI MODEL VARIMA UNTUK MERAMALKAN TINGKAT PENGHUNIAN KAMAR HOTEL DI PROVINSI SUMATERA SELATAN

NURLAILA, UMMUL FAHMI and Andriani, Yuli and Hanum, Herlina (2024) IMPLEMENTASI MODEL VARIMA UNTUK MERAMALKAN TINGKAT PENGHUNIAN KAMAR HOTEL DI PROVINSI SUMATERA SELATAN. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Forecasting is a crucial method for predicting future values, particularly when dealing with multiple variables. The Vector Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (VARIMA) model proves effective in forecasting data involving more than one variable. This study focuses on analyzing the Room Occupancy Rate percentage, which exhibits significant annual fluctuations, especially in the context of South Sumatra Province's hotel industry. These fluctuations can profoundly impact business planning and hotel management. The study aims to identify the best model for forecasting the Room Occupancy Rate in both starred and non-starred hotels in South Sumatra Province. The methodology employed involves utilizing the VARIMA model with Time Series data spanning from January 2017 to September 2023. The analytical process includes data description and movement analysis through Time Series plots, stationary tests, model order identification, selection of the best model based on the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion value, parameter estimation, residual diagnostic tests, model validation, and forecasting. The results obtained the best model VARIMA (2,1,0). The accuracy of the model is very good based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, that is for the Room Occupancy Rate of star hotels of 8.216% and the Room Occupancy Rate of non-star hotels of 3.989%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Peramalan, Tingkat Penghunian Kamar, MAPE, VARIMA
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA1-939 Mathematics > QA37.3.1.64 Applied Mathematics
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 44201-Mathematics (S1)
Depositing User:	Ummul Fahmi Nurlaila
Date Deposited:	27 Mar 2024 02:56
Last Modified:	27 Mar 2024 02:56
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/142804

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