TINGKAT VOLATILITAS HARGA KAKAO GLOBAL DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN DI INDONESIA SERTA PREDIKSI MASA DEPAN

SETIAWAN, GADING and Antoni, Mirza (2025) TINGKAT VOLATILITAS HARGA KAKAO GLOBAL DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN DI INDONESIA SERTA PREDIKSI MASA DEPAN. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Cocoa commodities in Indonesia are one of the contributors to the country's foreign exchange. Indonesia ranks third in cocoa production. However, in recent years, cocoa commodities have experienced significant price fluctuations, raising concerns about Indonesia's cocoa trade balance. Therefore, this research aims to (1) Analyze the level of global cocoa price volatility from January 2017 to September 2024, (2) Analyze the impact of global cocoa price volatility on Indonesia's cocoa trade balance, (3) Predict future global cocoa prices. This research activity will be conducted in January 2025 with a focus on the country of Indonesia. The research method used is historical data analysis through a quantitative approach. The historical data used are monthly periods from January 2017 to September 2024 obtained through official websites. The data processing method for the first objective is the ARCH-GARCH method (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), the second objective uses the ECM (Error Correcting Model), and the third objective uses the ARIMA Model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). This research concludes that (1) Based on the analysis of global cocoa price volatility from January 2017 to September 2024, it was found that cocoa prices experienced high volatility with a value of 1.22, particularly due to a price surge that began in 2023 and continues to the present, triggered by extreme weather in Africa, the main producing region. The main factors causing high price volatility include production instability due to the impact of El Niño, resulting in market demand being higher than the available supply. (2) Based on the analysis of the impact of global cocoa price volatility on Indonesia's cocoa trade balance for the period January 2017 – September 2024, it was found that cocoa price volatility has a significant and negative or opposite effect on Indonesia's cocoa trade balance. It can be interpreted that if the persistence of global cocoa price volatility increases further away from the average, the value of Indonesia's cocoa trade balance will continue to decline. The short-term elasticity value of cocoa price volatility in Indonesia is 11,057.01, (3) The forecast for world cocoa prices from October 2024 to December 2025 shows three main scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. The projection of actual data and predictive data shows that the most accurate is the optimistic scenario.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARCH-GARCH, ECM, model ARIMA, peramalan harga kakao, volatilitas harga kakao
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB135-147 Mathematical economics. Quantitative methods Including econometrics, input-output analysis, game theory H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB221-236 Price H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB3711-3840 Business cycles. Economic fluctuations S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) > S560-571.5 Farm economics. Farm management. Agricultural mathematics. Including production standards, record keeping, farmwork rates, marketing
Divisions:	05-Faculty of Agriculture > 54201-Agribusiness (S1)
Depositing User:	Gading Setiawan
Date Deposited:	06 May 2025 02:45
Last Modified:	06 May 2025 02:45
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/171422

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