UJI SKEMA PARAMETERISASI KUMULUS MULTI-SCALE KAIN-FRITSCH PADA MODEL WRF-ARW UNTUK PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH SUMATERA SELATAN DAN SEKITARNYA

SIANTURI, WENTINA and Irfan, Muhammad and Satya, Octavianus Cakra (2025) UJI SKEMA PARAMETERISASI KUMULUS MULTI-SCALE KAIN-FRITSCH PADA MODEL WRF-ARW UNTUK PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH SUMATERA SELATAN DAN SEKITARNYA. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Unpredictable changes in rainfall patterns demand the use of accurate weather models. This work aims to assess the performance of the WRF-ARW model with the Multi-Scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme in forecasting rainfall over South Sumatra during September to November 2024. The model uses GFS data as input and is validated against ERA5 data. Results show that WRF-ARW predicts higher rainfall than ERA5, particularly in November. The average rainfall from WRF-ARW reached 473.94 mm, while ERA5 recorded 205.76 mm. Most prediction errors fall into the low to moderate category. The transition from El Niño to weak La Niña and the negative IOD phase influenced rainfall distribution.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ERA5, GFS, IOD, MSKF, Rainfall, South Sumatra, WRF-ARW
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics > QC994.95-999 Weather forecasting
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 45201-Physics (S1)
Depositing User:	Wentina Sianturi
Date Deposited:	26 May 2025 08:10
Last Modified:	26 May 2025 08:10
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/174197

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