MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) UNTUK MENGKAJI PERUBAHAN POLA CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA PALEMBANG TAHUN 2009-2018

ELFRIDA, FERONIA and Hanum, Herlina and Dewi, Novi Rustiana (2019) MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) UNTUK MENGKAJI PERUBAHAN POLA CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA PALEMBANG TAHUN 2009-2018. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Information about climate change has an important role to prevent the occurrence of floods and droughts. Climate change also related to determining planting season. Climate change influenced by rainfall. The purpose of this study to model and analyze monthly rainfall data in Sultan Mahmud Badarudin Station in Palembang with 3 periods such as 2009-2013, 2014-2018, and 2009-2018 to determine if there are any differences of rainfall patterns. This study used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model because rainfall is time series data with seasonal factor. The result of this study has shown that there were 3 different kinds of rainfall patterns. Rainy season happened every 4 months for 2009-2018 period with SARIMA(0,1,3)(2,1,2)4model , 12 months for 2009-2013 period with SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model and 6 months for 2014-2018 period with SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)6 model.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Rainfall, SARIMA, Time Series, Palembang, Seasonal
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273-280 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 44201-Mathematics (S1)
Depositing User:	Users 4940 not found.
Date Deposited:	28 Jan 2020 04:18
Last Modified:	28 Jan 2020 04:18
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/26056

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