PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK DI SUMATRA SELATAN MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA FUZZY TIME SERIES DAN PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION

FEBRIANTI, VIRGIANA and Rini, Dian Palupi and Rodiah, Desty (2022) PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK DI SUMATRA SELATAN MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA FUZZY TIME SERIES DAN PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Population growth occurs due to the increase in the number of births.The impact of population growth affects human welfare,both in the economic,health social,political and cultural fields.Therefore it is necessary to conduct population forecasting so that it can control population growth and population welfare on a regular basis,based on the results of the forecasting carried out .One of the forecasting methods used is Fuzzy Time Series (FTS).However,this method still has drawbacks,namely in determining the value of the interval that is not precise.So an optimization algorithm is needed to find the optimal value of the interval .This study aims to forecast the population in the city of Palembang using the FTS method which is optimized using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) The amount of data used is 60 data for 5 years and the historical population for the period 2010-2020, the method used to calculate eros obtained using RMSE and AFER so that the average accuracy result is obtained.From the overall test of RMSE = 22182,58487 da AFER = 9.8175400 % .

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Fuzzy Time Series , jumlah penduduk, Particle Swarm Optimization, Peramalan, Sumatra Selatan
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA1-939 Mathematics > QA9.64.A56 Computer science. Fuzzy mathematics.
Divisions:	09-Faculty of Computer Science > 55201-Informatics (S1)
Depositing User:	Virgiana Febrianti
Date Deposited:	24 Nov 2022 07:27
Last Modified:	24 Nov 2022 07:27
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/82655

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