PENENTUAN PELUANG TRANSISI KASUS COVID-19 DI SUMATERA SELATAN DENGAN ANALISIS RANTAI MARKOV

RIVALDO, DANIEL LAMBOK and Dwipurwani, Oki and Sukanda, Dian Cahyawati (2022) PENENTUAN PELUANG TRANSISI KASUS COVID-19 DI SUMATERA SELATAN DENGAN ANALISIS RANTAI MARKOV. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

This study aims to predict the development of daily cases of COVID-19 in South Sumatra in the suspect and recovered confirmed cases categories using Markov chain analysis by finding the probability value of each state at time t+1 until the probability value reaches a steady state condition. The data analyzed in this study is data on the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 in South Sumatra for the suspect and recovered confirmed case categories from January 1, 2022 to July 31, 2022. Determination of state is based on changes in the number of COVID-19 cases. If the number of cases increases is categorized as state 1 (increases state), the number of cases decreases as state 2 (decreases state), and the fixed number of cases as state 3 (fixed state). The transition probability for number of cases of suspect cases of COVID-19 in the steady state condition is 0.46 for an increase in the number of cases, 0.51 for a decrease in the number of cases, and 0.03 for a fixed number of cases. The transition probability for number of cases of recovered confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the steady state condition is 0.42 for an increase in the number of cases, 0.40 for a decrease in the number of cases, and 0.18 for a fixed number of cases. Based on the magnitude of probabilty value, it can be concluded that the addition of the number of new cases for the suspect case category tends to decrease, while for the recovered confirmed cases category tends to increase. Keywords: COVID-19, Markov Chain, Suspect, Recovered Confirmed, Steady State

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19, rantai Markov, suspek, konfirmasi sembuh, steady state
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273-280 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 44201-Mathematics (S1)
Depositing User:	Daniel Lambok Rivaldo
Date Deposited:	01 Feb 2023 06:04
Last Modified:	01 Feb 2023 06:04
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/88887

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