PERAMALAN HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) MENGGUNAKAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES

NOVITASARI, DWI and Rini, Dian Palupi and Rodiah, Desty (2020) PERAMALAN HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) MENGGUNAKAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) memiliki posisi penting bagi perekonomian indonesia yang harganya terus mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan, sehingga membuat permasalahan bagi pengekspor maupun pedagang kesulitan dalam mendapat keuntungan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Single Exponenetial Smoothing dan Fuzzy Time Series Cheng, dan data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu harga CPO sebanyak 72 data. Kedua metode tersebut memiliki kelebihan dalam sistem pembobotan, sehingga dilakukan penelitian dari kedua metode tersebut mana yang memiliki tingkat error terendah (terbaik). Hasil peramalan yang didapat dari kedua metode tersebut diukur keakuratan menggunakan Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). Pengujian pada metode Single Exponential Smoothing mendapat hasil parameter alpha terbaik yaitu 0,9 dengan nilai error sebesar, -5527.58 (ME), 337937.2201 (MAD), 1.85145E+11 (MSE), dan 3.588981652 (MAPE). Pada metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng didapatkan nilai error lebih rendah dari metode Single Exponenetial Smoothing sebesar, -1334.9783 (ME), 309357.602 (MAD), 1.53621E+11 (MSE), dan 3.288888246 (MAPE).

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Fuzzy Time Series, Fuzzy Time Series Cheng, peramalan, Single Exponential Smoothing
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA1-939 Mathematics > QA9.64.A56 Computer science. Fuzzy mathematics.
Divisions:	09-Faculty of Computer Science > 55201-Informatics (S1)
Depositing User:	Users 9892 not found.
Date Deposited:	16 Feb 2021 06:47
Last Modified:	16 Feb 2021 06:47
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/42983

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