PENENTUAN PROBABILITAS TRANSISI KASUS TINGKAT RISIKO COVID-19 DI KABUPATEN OGAN ILIR MELALUI RANTAI MARKOV

APRIANI, AGUSTINA and Hanum, Herlina and Sukanda, Dian Cahyawati (2022) PENENTUAN PROBABILITAS TRANSISI KASUS TINGKAT RISIKO COVID-19 DI KABUPATEN OGAN ILIR MELALUI RANTAI MARKOV. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (1MB) | Request a copy
Preview	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_01_front_ref.pdf - Accepted Version Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (783kB) | Preview
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_TURNITIN.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (5MB) | Request a copy
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_02.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (391kB) | Request a copy
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_03.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (219kB) | Request a copy
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_04.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (619kB) | Request a copy
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_05.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (361kB) | Request a copy
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_06_ref.pdf - Bibliography Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (328kB) | Request a copy
	Text RAMA_44201_08011181722060_0008016503_0021037302_07_lamp.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Available under License Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication. Download (396kB) | Request a copy

Abstract

COVID-19 is a disease caused by a new typed of corona virus, betacoronavirus. The COVID-19 virus caused respiratory tract infections. The rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus had reached the Ogan Ilir Regency area. Markov chain is a method that could been applied to model changes in the valued of a random variable or state from time to time. The markov chain analysis method could been applied to daily data of COVID-19 cases to determine the probability of transitioning the leveled of risk characteristic of COVID-19 cases. The purpose of the studied was to analyze the data and obtain the transition probability of the risk leveled of COVID-19 cases to steady state conditions. The data analyzed was daily data on COVID-19 cases for the period from 4 August 2020 to 9 March 2021 in Ogan Ilir Regency. The data source used was secondary data accessed through the official website of the Ogan Ilir corona task forced. The conditions observed from the daily data experienced three conditions, namely decreasing, constant, and increasing. The results of markov chain analysis on the suspect-probable case category data showed that in the three stated, the steady state transition probability for the decreasing state was 0.46%, the constant state was 97.7%, and the decline transition probability was 1. 84%. The results showed that the largest probability in the suspect-probable category was in a constant state. Likewise, for the category of suspect-confirmation, suspect-discarded, suspect-processed, confirmation of recovery and confirmation of death for the next long-term period tended have been in a constant condition Keywords: Markov chain, COVID-19, Steady State

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Rantai Markov, COVID-19, Steady State
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273-280 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics > QA279.C663 Response surfaces (Statistics)
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 44201-Mathematics (S1)
Depositing User:	Agustina Apriani
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2022 02:20
Last Modified:	03 Feb 2022 02:20
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/63412

Actions (login required)

View Item