PERBANDINGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR MIGAS INDONESIA

FARDILLA, AULIA AYU and Hanum, Herlina and Andriani, Yuli (2024) PERBANDINGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR MIGAS INDONESIA. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Time series models are models that frequently used in forecasting. In the case of forecasting fluctuating time series data, a smoothing method is necessary. Popular smoothing methods are the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing methods. The main objective of this research is to compare the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing methods in forecasting the value of Indonesia’s oil and gas exports. The data used in this research are monthly data on the value of Indonesia’s oil and gas exports obtained from publications from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) from January 2014 to September 2023 as many as 117 datas. A Comparison of the Moving Average and the Exponential Smoothing methods are made by looking at the least forecasting error obtained. The indicator used to measure forecasting accuracy is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The smoothing period used in the Moving Average method are 2,3 and 6 monthly, while the smoothing parameters used in the Exponential Smoothing method are 0,1, 0,5 and 0,9. Based on the research results, the best method for Moving Average is a 2-month Single Moving Average resulting a MAPE value of 5,31%. The best method for Exponential Smoothing is Single Exponential smoothing with resulting a MAPE value of 1,05%. The Single Exponential Smoothing method with parameter is better than the 2-month Single Moving Average method. The results of forecasting the value of oil and gas exports for October 2023 using the Single Exponential Smoothing with method amounted to 1395,59 with an Absolute Percentage Error (APE) value of 1,75%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Ekspor Migas
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA101-(145) Elementary mathematics. Arithmetic
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 44201-Mathematics (S1)
Depositing User:	Aulia Ayu Fardilla
Date Deposited:	26 Mar 2024 10:34
Last Modified:	26 Mar 2024 10:34
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/142718

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