PENERAPAN DATA MINING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI HARGA BAHAN BAKU PUPUK NPK MENGGUNAKAN DATA TIME SERIES

BALQIS, ADINDA AULIA and Heroza, Rahmat Izwan (2021) PENERAPAN DATA MINING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI HARGA BAHAN BAKU PUPUK NPK MENGGUNAKAN DATA TIME SERIES. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

In the short term, tensions in the fertilizer market will increase agricultural production costs and affect farm profits. Especially for those focusing on the field of fertilizer production where the price of raw materials continuously fluctuates in a stochastic or uncertain way from time to time. This study aims to minimize expenses and prepare for the future by knowing when is the right time to buy raw materials for NPK fertilizer. The data used in this study was obtained from the internet using the Web Scraping method taken from the Indexmundi website in the form of Raw Material Prices, namely KCL, Phosphate, Urea which are the main raw materials for NPK Fertilizer. All of the data has a period of 25 years which includes Time Series data. This study uses data mining techniques with the CRISP DM method which is divided into six phases, namely business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and application. (deployment). For the selection of the best parameters in forecasting itself using the SARIMA method because the data shows a pattern that occurs repeatedly every year. The results of this study will later obtain predictions of raw material prices for the future period. Keywords: Forecasting, Data Mining, SARIMA, CRISP-DM Method, Time Series, Python

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Forecasting, Data Mining, SARIMA, CRISP-DM Method, Time Series, Python
Subjects:	S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) > S1-(972) Agriculture (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.5-58.64 Information technology > T58.5 General works Management information systems Cf. HD30.213 Industrial management Cf. HF5549.5.C6+ Communication in personnel management Cf. TS158.6 Automatic data collection systems (Production control) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.6-58.62 Management information systems
Divisions:	09-Faculty of Computer Science > 57201-Information Systems (S1)
Depositing User:	Adinda Aulia Balqis
Date Deposited:	22 Sep 2021 04:17
Last Modified:	22 Sep 2021 04:17
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/54391

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