ANALISIS RESPONS RESILIENSI EKONOMI DI NEGARA EMERGING MARKET TERHADAP KEJUTAN KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT

CITRA, REVIKA JULIA and Andaiyani, Sri (2025) ANALISIS RESPONS RESILIENSI EKONOMI DI NEGARA EMERGING MARKET TERHADAP KEJUTAN KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

The increased global economic uncertainty in recent years, particularly originating from the United States, has become a strategic issue affecting the economic stability of Emerging Market countries. This study analyzes the effect of the Monetary Uncertainty Index, Geopolitical Risk, and World Uncertainty on economic resilience as proxied by the Business Confidence Index in Emerging Market countries in the context of global uncertainty triggered by US economic conditions, using quarterly data for the 2019-2023 period using the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) method. The results showed that the Monetary Uncertainty Index, Geopolitical Risk, and World Uncertainty Index have a significant positive influence both in the short and long term. While Geopolitical Risk, and World Uncertainty Index have a significant negative effect in the short term. The implication of this study underscores the importance of integrating solid monetary, fiscal, and structural policies, Emerging Market countries can strengthen their economic resilience in the face of global uncertainty shocks while maintaining long-term stability.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Resiliensi Ekonomi, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, World Uncertainty
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB501 Capital. Capitalism H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG1-9999 Finance H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG201-1496 Money H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG2397-3550 By region or country H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG3810-4000 Foreign exchange. International finance. International monetary system H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4501-6051 Investment, capital formation, speculation H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4701-4751 Government securities. Industrial securities. Venture capital
Divisions:	01-Faculty of Economics > 60201-Development Economics (S1)
Depositing User:	Revika Julia Citra
Date Deposited:	11 Jul 2025 04:19
Last Modified:	11 Jul 2025 04:19
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/177435

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