ANALISIS DINAMIKA STRUKTUR DAN VARIABILITAS ARUS LINTAS INDONESIA (ARLINDO) BERDASARKAN HASIL OBSERVASI DAN PEMODELAN HIDRODINAMIKA

BAHIYAH, AMIROTUL and Iskandar, Iskhaq (2025) ANALISIS DINAMIKA STRUKTUR DAN VARIABILITAS ARUS LINTAS INDONESIA (ARLINDO) BERDASARKAN HASIL OBSERVASI DAN PEMODELAN HIDRODINAMIKA. Doctoral thesis, Universitas Sriwijaya.

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Abstract

The maritime continent is a vital location that has an important role in global circulation, both ocean circulation (offering the only global circulation path in the tropics) and atmosphere (being part of the global walker circulation). In the regional ocean circulation associated with the greater Southeast Asia Sea (SEAS), the ARLINDO water mass is influenced by the South China Sea (SCS) water mass which has fresh watermass characteristics. Under increasing climate change, local to global circulation changes the characteristics of ARLINDO significantly. Therefore, this research aims to examine the oceanographic dynamics in the Banda Sea and surrounding seas that are part of the main channel of the Indonesian Throughflow (ARLINDO) and its implications for global climate change, especially climate anomalies that occur in the Indo-Pacific region, namely the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The close relationship between ARLINDO surface-subsurface dynamics, Indo-Pacific climate anomalies and local climate change in the Indonesian region is an important point that must be updated regularly. This study has a significant contribution in the development of related science in understanding the details of ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the ARLINDO track, where this study will be reviewed spatially, and temporally by paying attention to the dynamics of the vertical structure of seawater, especially in the mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Banda Sea and surrounding areas. The analysis was conducted using a remote sensing approach by integrating insitu data, ocean-atmosphere satellites and modelling result. This research is divided into three stages. First, the temperature-salinity stratification and vertical profile of ARLINDO water masses under the influence of ENSO events were analyzed. This stage was conducted to evaluate the possible impact of ocean stratification due to climate change originating from the tropical Pacific Ocean. Second, temporal and spatial analysis of surface and subsurface salinity distribution in the Banda Sea and surrounding seas. This analysis aims to determine the seasonal pattern of ocean circulation in Indonesia, especially in the Banda Sea. Third, 3D analysis of salinity budget calculations applied to the surface and subsurface layers with a longer research time scale, namely interannual analysis. The difference between the second and third stages of analysis lies in the study’s time scale, the study area's coverage, and the data used, namely insitu-satellite data (second stage) and OGCM model data (third stage). In the typical circumstances throughout the year, the entrance channel of ARLINDO had a higher salinity value and cooler water masses than other ARLINDO channels particularly during the Northwest (NW) Monsoon. Meanwhile, the Temperature-Salinity (T-S) diagram in the Indonesian Sea showed a declining value and raising again at the outflow pathway in both parameters. During La Niña events, Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) water masses are often portrayed as fresher and warmer, while reverse circumstances are depicted in El Niño events with exclusion at the outlet, indicating saltier and colder water masses than normal conditions. An extreme alteration of T-S value is mostly depicted in Makassar Strait from Southeast (SE) monsoon (September to November or SON) to NW monsoon, followed by the Banda Sea and continued by the Molucca Sea. This significant ocean change is related to freshwater variability spread from the Java to the Banda Sea. The Banda Sea has two freshening occurrences: a mild freshening in December and a massive freshening in March. The first freshening occurrence is associated with surface flux via precipitation, while, the second freshening in March is attributed to zonal advection by the Java Sea and a modest contribution by surface flux. As the sample occurance, the 2018 has been noted as a prolonged freshening phase with a low propagation speed of around 0.11 m s-1 from the Java Sea. Still, the 2019 occurrence has a shorter period with more massive freshening with a propagation speed of 0.41 m s-1. The difference in speed is due to a low El Niño, which increases the advection force of the Java Sea on the Banda Sea. Furthermore, the surface flux contributed more to freshening process in 2019 (approximately -0.05 PSU day-1), with the daily precipitation rate reaching 0.8 mm hr-1, compared to the surface flux in 2018 (-0.03 to -0.04 PSU day-1). As the major contributor of freshwater in southern hemisphere of IMC (IMCsh), freshening in the Java Sea during the early phases of the northwest monsoon (November to December) is dominated by surface flux, with a modest contribution from South China Sea (SCS) throughflow. Meanwhile, from January to May, the low salinity Java Sea is fed by damping contribution (representing river discharge), with a minor contribution from precipitation over the sea. Interestingly, the low salinity SCS input to the Java Sea is weaker than the surface flux contribution. During interannual periods, salinity (current component) fluctuation in IMCsh more attracts to IOD (ENSO). the Banda Sea is strongly correlated with ENSO, and the Java Sea is fluctuated by IOD. Furthermore, the salinity tendency change of the Banda Sea in September-November affects the following year's IOD index in February. These findings provide a scientific contribution as a basis for future meteorological forecasting where ARLINDO fluctuations influence global climate change in the Indo-Pacific region. The final results of this study will be part of the New NAGA Report project, which aims to update the 1961 NAGA Report book by Prof. Klaus Wyrtki, which is a compilation of research results on the oceanography of the Indonesian Sea. In addition, the results of this study are also expected to add information in understanding and predicting climate change that occurs in Indonesia and be able to assist in disaster management policies due to climate anomaly phenomena, especially IOD and ENSO.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARLINDO, Kejadian Iklim Indo-Pasifik, Perairan Indonesia, Laut Banda, Salinitas, Temperatur
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics > QC801-809 Geophysics. Cosmic physics Q Science > QC Physics > QC851-999 Meteorology. Climatology. Including the earth's atmosphere Q Science > QC Physics > QC980-999 Climatology and weather
Divisions:	08-Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science > 44001-Mathematics and Natural Science (S3)
Depositing User:	Amirotul Bahiyah
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2025 05:31
Last Modified:	17 Jul 2025 05:31
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/177800

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