PERBANDINGAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DALAM PENENTUAN JUMLAH PENJUALAN PUPUK

HILMI, M.A.RASYID and Yunita, Yunita and Miraswan, Kanda Januar (2019) PERBANDINGAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DALAM PENENTUAN JUMLAH PENJUALAN PUPUK. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

The Single Exponential Smoothing Method and the Single Moving Average are forecasting methods that is suitable for predicting short-term data. This study compares between the Single Exponential Smoothing Method and the Single Moving Average Method in predicting fertilizer sales at PT.PUPUK SRIWIDJAJA. To compare these methods, predictions were made for each sale with both methods, then the results of predictions were compared with actual data to take 4 measurements which are Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). Based on the research results, it was found that the best alpha for data organik in Single Exponential Smoothing method was 0,6, and the best alpha for data urea was 0,9. Meanwhile the best moving for data organik in Single Moving Average method was 2, and the best moving for data urea was also 2. Also based on this research, it was found that Single Exponential Smoothing has higher accuracy than Single Moving Average in predicting these data with 0,37 ME difference, 77,93 MAD difference, 285.625,87 MSE difference, and 2,07% MAPE difference for data organik while data urea has -271,86 ME difference, 4.686,12 MAD difference, 348.156.881,79 MSE difference, and 4,05% MAPE difference.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Prediction, Fuzzy, Single Exponential Smoothing, Single Moving average.
Subjects:	R Medicine > R Medicine (General) > R858-859.7 Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics
Divisions:	09-Faculty of Computer Science > 55201-Informatics (S1)
Depositing User:	Users 3073 not found.
Date Deposited:	15 Nov 2019 05:13
Last Modified:	15 Nov 2019 05:24
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/16360

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