PERAMALAN KONSUMSI ENERGI LISTRIK DI KOTA PALEMBANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

TUASIKAL, RAHMAT FAUZI and Herlina, Herlina (2020) PERAMALAN KONSUMSI ENERGI LISTRIK DI KOTA PALEMBANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Undergraduate thesis, Sriwijaya University.

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Abstract

Forecasting the demand for electrical energy consumption is an important early step in planning and developing the availability of electrical energy. Accordingly, we call for a method to forecast the consumption of electrical energy precisely. In this research, the method employed to forecast electricity consumption in Palembang is the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) method and the Double Exponential Smoothing Method. The best ARIMA model worked to forecast electrical energy consumption is the ARIMA model (1,1,2). This model considers satisfied the parameter significance assumptions, particularly the normal residual independence test, the white noise assumption test, and the Smirnov Kolmogrof test, and involves the lightest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The ends established the MAPE value brought about utilizing the ARIMA method (1,1,2) was 5.8491%, while by utilizing the Double Exponential Smoothing method the MAPE value set up based on the value of 0.4 and 0.1 was 4.4675%. In this application, the Double Exponential Smoothing method is further valid because it offers an error value for forecasting close to the appropriate value of the electricity consumption data in Palembang City. Keywords: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) Method, Double Exponential Smoothing Method, Electricity Consumption prediction.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
Subjects:	T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK3001-3521 Distribution or transmission of electric power T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK301-399 Electric meters T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK4001-4102 Applications of electric power
Divisions:	03-Faculty of Engineering > 20201-Electrical Engineering (S1)
Depositing User:	Users 8867 not found.
Date Deposited:	04 Dec 2020 04:30
Last Modified:	04 Dec 2020 04:30
URI:	http://repository.unsri.ac.id/id/eprint/38357

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